REQUEST FOR EXPRESSION OF INTEREST: DEVELOPING ELECTRICITY DEMAND MODEL AND FORECAST FOR THE EGYPTIAN ELECTRICITY HOLDING COMPANY

The Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy (“MoERE”) of the Arab Republic of Egypt has received a financing from the Agence Française de Développement (“AFD”) and intends to use part of the funds thereof for payments under the following project: Developing Electricity Demand Model and Forecast for the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company.
In October 2016, the Government of Egypt (“GoE”) has adopted the Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) 2035 to modernise the energy sector and increase the renewable energy (“RE”) penetration in the energy mix. This strategy has set the RE targets of 20% of the electricity mix by 2022 and 42% by 2035.
Within this context, the AFD has agreed to allocate a Grant in a maximum aggregate amount of one million five hundred thousand Euros (EUR 1,500,000) to support the MoERE, the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (“EEHC”), and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission company (“EETC”) in achieving the objectives of the ISES 2035 and developing of the Egyptian Energy Sector. Accordingly, the grant has specified three major targets, (i) enhancing the governance of the energy sector, (ii) optimising the energy use, and (iii) improving energy supply. This Grant is managed and supervised by a project management team within MoERE for the benefit of EEHC and EEHC and the relevant affiliated companies.
EEHC is an Egyptian joint-stock company serving over 37.9 million customers via six generation and 9 distribution companies distributed across Egypt. In addition, the transmission system operator, EETC, is also among the affiliated company of EEHC.
In line with the ISES 2035, EEHC and its subsidiaries and affiliated companies play a vital role towards the achievement of a higher quality of service, improving energy supply and energy use. Accordingly, EEHC’s strategic planning sector prepares and updates on continuous basis short, medium and long-term demand forecasts based on which the generation expansion plan is designed. These demand forecasts are meant to take into consideration:
• Transformations in the energy sector policies and regulations including and not limited to energy efficiency policies, demand side management programs and tariffs transformations;
• Renewable energy penetration on the distribution level;
• Customers demographics transitions including and not limited to population, household structure transition;
• Socio-economic factors;
• Industrials, national projects and infrastructure development and electrification plans;
• Among others.

This demand load forecast is defined for the different regions across Egypt to facilitate both generation and transmission expansion planning over short-, medium-, and long-term.
The Services of the Consultant shall consist of but are not limited to the following:
• Review of existing practices of EEHC’s strategic planning sector which includes: actual available data and its structure, data collection processes, actual used software and tools, developed reports and load forecasts;
• Benchmarking of the suitable demand forecast models for EEHC’s strategc planning sector based on the international best practices;
• Developing a load demand and forecasting presenting both the energy and peak load demand on the short-, medium-, and long-term. This load forecast should consider energy policies and regulations transformation, socio-economic development, RE integration on the distribution level among others input data. The model should be capable of producing standard and user-specifc reports based on the modeled scenario. Additionally, it should be directly connected to a database of histroical input and forecasted data;
• Implementation of EEHC load demand model. The Consultant is expected to design the data collection proceudre, develop an actual data model, historical database structure and produce a short-, medium-, and long-term forecast for EEHC for one or more scenarios;
• Designing and delivering a capacity building program to EEHC’s strategic planning sector and relevant stakeholders on using and maintaining the demand forecast model. The program should consider presenting the different metholodigies of demand forecasting, scenario analysis and selection;
• Supporting and coaching the strategic planning sector on short-term basis to guarantee the know-how transfer and the sustainability of the project outputs.

The MoERE of the Arab Republic of Egypt hereby invites Applicants to show their interest in delivering the Services described above.